MicroMega, 26 ottobre 2020

Intervista di Daniele Nalbone, con una postilla di Paolo Flores d’Arcais

Per l’economista di Unisannio le proteste di Napoli sono solo l’inizio: la crisi del Covid distrugge i vecchi equilibri sociali ed è destinata a scatenare un’onda caotica di rivendicazioni. Per scongiurare tentazioni repressive occorre mettere in chiaro che il diritto costituzionale di manifestare va posto allo stesso livello del diritto alla salute. Il suo appello: “Il parlamento blocchi immediatamente i provvedimenti nazionali e locali che limitano la libertà di manifestazione pubblica, e garantisca mezzi che consentano di esprimerla in tutti modi pacifici esistenti, dall’assemblea al corteo di strada. Se servono dispositivi sanitari in tal senso, che si adottino. Ma nessuno invochi più strette alla libertà di manifestare. Sulla tutela dell’articolo 17 della Costituzione e dei diritti ad esso collegati chiedo di aprire un dibattito che coinvolga gli esperti, le istituzioni e tutte le forze democratiche. Prima che sia tardi.”

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PSL QUARTERLY REVIEW IS AN OPEN ACCESS JOURNAL: FREE DOWNLOAD!

Brancaccio E., De Cristofaro F. (2020). Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe, PSL Quarterly Review, 73 (294): 225-239.

ABSTRACT. The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term.

JEL codes: E23, E27, E62
Keywords: GDP forecast errors, Keynesian multipliers, panel analysis

In the same PSL QR issue, see also Bank of Italy’s Governor Ignazio Visco on “economic growth and productivity”.

Archyde.com (translated from Huffingtonpost)

The Mes is a bad deal, and it must be put in the attic even by the so-called “Europeanists”. The economic convenience is doubtful, the risk of financial stigma is real, the conditionalities now suspended could be reactivated. This is what Emiliano Brancaccio, economist and professor at the University of Sannio, says in an interview with the Huffington Post, in which he makes a careful examination of the pros and cons of an eventual recourse to the State-Saving Fund by Italy. Last March, together with other economist colleagues, Brancaccio published in the Financial Times an appeal for an “anti-virus plan” founded on greater control of speculation on the financial markets and on modern planning of public investments in Europe.

Read the interview on Archide.com